Fig. 3


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(A) 6528 Kp predictions with τ = 24, 01/01/2017–09/30/17 with inputs Bz, n, σB. Each dot is a prediction plotted against its corresponding true Kp value, and the solid line indicates the line of best fit with a slope of C = 0.751. Also shown is a line of slope 1, corresponding to an ideal correlation value. (B) Frequency of Kp values for full data set 1986–2016 and 2017 predictions. The imbalance of low Kp to high Kp in both sets is evident.

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