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Figure A.1

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(a)–(f) The daily GPS S490 max observed by each GPS station throughout March and April of 2014 in black. The orange lines show the WBMOD predictions for GPS GPS S490 max and the blue lines show the TIEGCM R-T growth rate. In the top-right of each panel is the corresponding Heidke Skill Score and the percentage of correct EPB/non-EPB days forecast. The black percentage indicates the “persistence” forecast result. The dashed horizontal line indicates the S4 and R-T growth rate thresholds. (g) The real-time observed Kp (KpEst, black), the 1-hour predicted Kp (Kp1Hr, green) and the F10.7 solar flux (blue) throughout this period.

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