Table 2
Computed probability of Kp exceeding each threshold, post-observation of an EDCME, via the PGHA method via Method 1 and 2 (2nd and 3rd row respectively); the a priori probability of Kp above each threshold (4th row), and probability scaling factors, i.e. “EDCME-observed/a priori” (5th and 6th row). Since statistical uncertainty is not quantified, data have been rounded to three figures.
| Kp threshold | Kp > 6− (G2) | Kp > 7− (G3) | Kp > 8− (G4) | Kp = 9o (G5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Method 1: PGHA computed probability for storm from a CME, after EDCME observation (A1) | 0.359 | 0.227 | 0.0903 | 0.0113 |
| Method 2: PGHA computed probability for storm from a CME, after EDCME observation (A2) | 0.360 | 0.230 | 0.0881 | 0.0115 |
| A priori probability for storm from all sources, from Kp distribution (B) | 0.0661 | 0.0258 | 0.00980 | 0.00068 |
| Check: Ratio (A1/B) | 5.43 | 8.82 | 9.21 | 16.6 |
| Check: Ratio (A2/B) | 5.45 | 8.92 | 8.99 | 16.9 |
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