A probabilistic approach to the drag-based model Gianluca Napoletano, Roberta Forte, Dario Del Moro, Ermanno Pietropaolo, Luca Giovannelli and Francesco Berrilli J. Space Weather Space Clim., 8 (2018) A11 Published online: 20 February 2018 DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2018003