J. Space Weather Space Clim.
Volume 12, 2022
|Number of page(s)||13|
|Published online||16 May 2022|
Storm time neutral density assimilation in the thermosphere ionosphere with TIDA
Space Weather Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
2 Vector Space LLC, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
3 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
* Corresponding author:firstname.lastname@example.org
Accepted: 8 April 2022
To improve Thermosphere–Ionosphere modeling during disturbed conditions, data assimilation schemes that can account for the large and fast-moving gradients moving through the modeled domain are necessary. We argue that this requires a physics based background model with a non-stationary covariance. An added benefit of using physics-based models would be improved forecasting capability over largely persistence-based forecasts of empirical models. As a reference implementation, we have developed an ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) software called Thermosphere Ionosphere Data Assimilation (TIDA) using the physics-based Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe) model as the background. In this paper, we present detailed results from experiments during the 2003 Halloween Storm, 27–31 October 2003, under very disturbed (Kp = 9) conditions while assimilating GRACE-A and B, and CHAMP neutral density measurements. TIDA simulates this disturbed period without using the L1 solar wind measurements, which were contaminated by solar energetic protons, by estimating the model drivers from the density measurements. We also briefly present statistical results for two additional storms: September 27 – October 2, 2002, and July 26 – 30, 2004, to show that the improvement in assimilated neutral density specification is not an artifact of the corrupted forcing observations during the 2003 Halloween Storm. By showing statistical results from assimilating one satellite at a time, we show that TIDA produces a coherent global specification for neutral density throughout the storm – a critical capability in calculating satellite drag and debris collision avoidance for space traffic management.
Key words: Data assimilation / ensemble Kalman filter / geomagnetic storm / neutral density / satellite drag
© M.V. Codrescu et al., Published by EDP Sciences 2022
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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