(a) The UMASEP output after processing historical data from October 26, 2003, during which a well-connected event occurred. The small upper-right chart of Figure 2a shows the posterior evolution of the integral proton flux for this event, demonstrating that the forecast was successful (adapted from Figure 4 in Núñez 2011). (b) Two successful forecasts issued by UMASEP while processing real-time data during March 8, 2011 (top) and March 21, 2011 (bottom). The two images on the right, taken from the historical database of NASA’s iSWA system, were also used to indicate the times of the forecasts of the UMASEP and NOAA/SWPC services.