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Table 1.
Summarized overview of models reviewed within SG1.3 of COST ES0803.
| Model name and references | Observed input | Output parameters/products and services | Validation results (key references) | Prediction mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar weather predictions | ||||
| ASAPColak & Qahwaji 2009 | SOHO/MDI (SDO/HMI) Continuum and magnetogram images | Real-time prediction for the occurrence of flares | Verbeeck et al. 2013 Colak & Qahwaji 2011 | Forecast |
| SPoCA-suite | SDO-AIA images | Detect, extract, and track active regions and coronal holes on EUV images | Nowcast | |
| UMASEPNúñez 2011 | Flare and near-Earth space environment data (Soft X-ray differential and integral proton fluxes) | SEP warningsi. time interval within which the integral proton flux is expected to meet or surpass the SWPC SEP threshold of J (E > 10 MeV) = 10 pr cm−2 sr−1 s−1,ii. intensity of the first hours of SEP events. | Núñez 2011 | Forecast |
| Geomagnetic predictions | ||||
| UAH-SWSSaiz et al. 2008 Aguado et al. 2010 | IMF-Bz component Dst index | i. Warning of severe geomagnetic disturbances,ii. Estimate of the time remaining for the magnetosphere to recover quiet time conditions. | Forecast | |
| HDKKutiev et al. 2009a | Ground-based magnetic dataSolar wind data | K index | Kutiev et al. 2009a | Nowcast and Forecast |
| Satellite environment predictions | ||||
| TaDKutiev et al. 2010 Kutiev et al. 2012 | F10.7 indexKp index Digisonde-derived bottomside electron density profiles | Reconstructed electron density profiles up to geosynchronous heights over Digisonde locations | Belehaki et al. 2010 Belehaki et al. 2012 | Nowcast |
| Communications predictions | ||||
| SIRMUPZolesi et al. 2004 Tsagouri et al. 2010 | R12 Real-time foF2 observations | Regional nowcasting foF2 maps | Zolesi et al. 2004 Tsagouri et al. 2005 Tsagouri et al. 2010 | Nowcast |
| SWIFTsagouri et al. 2009 | IMF observations at L1 point (IMF-Btotal, IMF-Bz) foF2 observations (real time and past) | foF2 for single locations Regional foF2 forecasting maps (forecasts 1–24 h ahead) Warnings for upcoming ionospheric storm disturbances | Tsagouri et al. 2009 Tsagouri 2011 | Forecast |
| GCAMMuhtarov et al. 2002 Tsagouri 2011 | Ap index (predictions and actual records) foF2 observations (real time and past) | foF2 for single locations Regional foF2 forecasting maps (forecasts 1–24 h ahead) | Tsagouri et al. 2009 Tsagouri 2011 | Forecast |
| IFERMPietrella 2012 | ap(τ) foF2 (measurements and reference estimates) | Regional foF2 maps over Europe (forecasts 1–3 h ahead) | Pietrella 2012 | Forecast |
| NPDMHoque & Jakowski 2011 | F10.7 (current or predicted values depending on the prediction mode) | NmF2 at selected time and location | Hoque & Jakowski 2011 | Nowcast and forecast |
| NPHM | F10.7 (current or predicted values depending on the prediction mode) | hmF2 at selected time and location | Hoque & Jakowski 2012 | Nowcast and forecast |
| GNSS predictions | ||||
| VTEC- model-assisted monitoring at ROBBergeot et al. 2011 | NRT GNSS data European area | VTEC maps VTEC disturbances maps | Nowcast | |
| NTCM-GL | F10.7 (current or predicted values depending on the prediction mode) | TEC at selected time and location | Jakowski et al. 2011a, 2011b | Nowcast and forecast |
| Model-assisted TEC Monitoring (5 min update) | NRT GNSS data Global European area | NRT TEC maps | Jakowski 1996 Jakowski et al. 1998 Gulyaeva & Jakowski 1999 Belehaki et al. 2003 Feltens et al. 2011 | Nowcast |
| Model-assisted TECForecast (1 h) | NRT GNSS data Global European area | NRT TEC map 1 h forecast | Immediate control at the end of the forecast interval Jakowski et al. 2011b | Forecast |
| Space weather effects in the Earth’s atmosphere | ||||
| CICM SOCOLi Egorova et al. 2011 | NRT SSI data | O3, NO, NO2, OH, H2O volume mixing ratio, electron and total positive ion density, temperature, air density and geopotential height. | Nowcast and Forecast | |
| CORIMIAVelinov et al. 2012a, 2012b Velinov et al. 2013 | Charge Z of the galactic cosmic ray particleGalactic cosmic ray spectrum parameters | Atmospheric cut-offs for the corresponding altitude; Electron production rate for the cusp region and corresponding altitude; Electron production rate for the corresponding altitude and geomagnetic latitude. | Velinov et al. 2012a Velinov et al. 2012b Velinov et al. 2013 | Nowcast |
| CORIAEC Tonev & Velinov 2011 | Solar wind plasma density, velocity, IMF: By, Bz | Distributions of electric field, potential, and current density, Altitudes: 0–100 km, Latitudes: above 45°. | Tonev & Velinov 2011 | Nowcast |
| Ground-based predictions | ||||
| Real time GIC analyzers | Real-time solar wind data Ground magnetic field records | GIC | Viljanen et al. 2006 | Nowcast |
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