Fig. 1.


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Forecast of the >2 MeV electron flux for 17 June 2012 using the BAS model. From top to bottom (a) >2 MeV electron flux as a function of L* and time. The white line shows the location of the GOES 13 satellite, (b) the model results at the location of GOES (red crosses) and the GOES measurements (pink diamonds), (c) IMF Bz, (d) the provisional Dst index and the solar wind speed from ACE, and (e) the Kp index. The 3 h forecast is to the right of the vertical line in (a) and (b).

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