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Errors conditional on the observed flux values. The plot includes results for the SIDC forecast and the numerical models persistence, corrected recurrence of 14 and 27 days and linear fit. The three top panels show the median error (Sect. 3.1.1) conditional on the observed flux for days 1–3 respectively. The three following panels display the interquartile range (Sect. 3.1.1, IQR) of the error conditional on the observed flux for days 1–3 respectively. The bottom panel shows the histogram of the observed values.
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