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Matrix plot with the distributions and color grid for the different forecast models of the K-index. Top panel: color grid for the different forecasts (SIDC, persistence, corrected recurrence of 14 and 27 days). The predicted K-level is on the horizontal axis (x-axis), while the observed one is on the vertical axis (y-axis). The interpretation of all subplots is analogous to that of Figure 2. The more greenish or reddish the colored square, the more frequent the combination of forecasted and observed flare level occurs. Renormalized version where the sum of the probabilities across the whole grid is 1. The color code on a logarithmic scale is shown on the right side of the panel. Second panel: similar as top panel. Renormalized version where the sum of the probabilities along the x-axis is 1. Third panel: similar as top panel. Renormalized version where the sum of the probabilities along the y-axis is 1. As for Kf = 0 of the corrected 14 days recurrence model only Ko = 2 is observed, this conditional probability is 1 (red square). Bottom panel: histograms of the different forecast models and observations on a logarithmic scale.
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