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Table 3.
Skill scores for the SIDC forecast and numerical models for the forecast of flare events of classes M or X.
| SIDC forecast | Persistence | Recurrence 14 days | Recurrence 27 days | Corrected recurrence 14 days | Corrected recurrence 27 days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | 3119 | 3119 | 3119 | 3119 | 3119 | 3119 |
| a | 150 | 176 | 62 | 65 | 184 | 68 |
| b | 82 | 99 | 215 | 214 | 201 | 202 |
| c | 250 | 224 | 338 | 335 | 216 | 214 |
| d | 2637 | 2620 | 2504 | 2505 | 2518 | 2517 |
| Hits (%) | 4.81 | 5.64 | 1.99 | 2.08 | 5.90 | 5.96 |
| False alarms (%) | 2.63 | 3.17 | 6.89 | 6.86 | 6.44 | 6.48 |
| Misses (%) | 8.02 | 7.18 | 10.84 | 10.74 | 6.93 | 6.86 |
| Correct rejections (%) | 84.55 | 84.00 | 80.28 | 80.31 | 80.73 | 80.70 |
| Events (%) | 12.82 | 12.82 | 12.82 | 12.82 | 12.82 | 12.82 |
| POD (%) | 37.50 | 44.00 | 15.50 | 16.25 | 46.00 | 46.50 |
| FAR (%) | 35.34 | 36.00 | 77.62 | 76.70 | 52.21 | 52.06 |
| PC (%) | 89.63 | 89.64 | 82.27 | 82.40 | 86.63 | 86.66 |
| Bias | 0.58 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| HSS | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| TSS | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
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