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Table 4.
Skill scores for the SIDC forecast and numerical models for the forecast of a geomagnetic storm (K ≥ 5).
| SIDC forecast | Persistence | Recurrence 14 days | Recurrence 27 days | Corrected recurrence 14 days | Corrected recurrence 27 days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | 2985 | 2985 | 2985 | 2985 | 2985 | 2985 |
| a | 115 | 37 | 23 | 30 | 89 | 101 |
| b | 130 | 149 | 163 | 156 | 352 | 373 |
| c | 207 | 285 | 299 | 292 | 233 | 221 |
| d | 2533 | 2514 | 2500 | 2507 | 2311 | 2290 |
| Hits (%) | 3.85 | 1.24 | 0.77 | 1.01 | 2.98 | 3.38 |
| False alarms (%) | 4.36 | 4.99 | 5.46 | 5.23 | 11.79 | 12.50 |
| Misses (%) | 6.93 | 9.55 | 10.02 | 9.78 | 7.81 | 7.40 |
| Correct rejections (%) | 84.86 | 84.22 | 83.75 | 83.99 | 77.42 | 76.72 |
| Events (%) | 10.79 | 10.79 | 10.79 | 10.79 | 10.79 | 10.79 |
| POD (%) | 35.71 | 11.49 | 7.14 | 9.32 | 27.64 | 31.37 |
| FAR (%) | 53.06 | 80.11 | 87.63 | 83.87 | 79.82 | 78.69 |
| PC (%) | 88.71 | 85.46 | 84.52 | 84.99 | 80.40 | 80.10 |
| Bias | 0.76 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 1.37 | 1.47 |
| HSS | 0.34 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| TSS | 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
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