Table 4.
Average differences between the predicted and observed ICME arrival times (see Table 3): col. 1 contains the proxy used to infer the CME propagation speed. Cols. 2 and 3: the mean error and the mean absolute error (negative when the predicted arrival precedes the observed ICME arrival) and their standard deviations, respectively. Cols. 4 and 5: the mean error and the mean absolute error and their standard deviations with respect to the sheath arrival.
| Proxies | Errors with respect to ICME arrival |
Errors with respect to sheath arrival |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean error [h] | Mean absolute error [h] | Mean error [h] | Mean absolute error [h] | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
| Acceleration: equation (3) | ||||
| Fluence at 9 GHz | –7.3 ± 11 | 10.8 ± 7 | –0.2 ± 11 | 8.7 ± 7 |
| SXR fluence | –6 ± 10 | 9 ± 7 | 1 ± 11 | 8 ± 6 |
| Coronographic speed (VEXP = 2VCAT) | –22 ± 29 | 30.6 ± 18 | –14.6 ± 30 | 28 ± 17 |
| Coronographic speed (VEXP = 1.5VCAT) | –9 ± 31 | 24 ± 21 | –2 ± 33 | 23 ± 22 |
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