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Table 4.

Average differences between the predicted and observed ICME arrival times (see Table 3): col. 1 contains the proxy used to infer the CME propagation speed. Cols. 2 and 3: the mean error and the mean absolute error (negative when the predicted arrival precedes the observed ICME arrival) and their standard deviations, respectively. Cols. 4 and 5: the mean error and the mean absolute error and their standard deviations with respect to the sheath arrival.

Proxies Errors with respect to ICME arrival
Errors with respect to sheath arrival
Mean error [h] Mean absolute error [h] Mean error [h] Mean absolute error [h]
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Acceleration: equation (3)
Fluence at 9 GHz –7.3 ± 11 10.8 ± 7 –0.2 ± 11 8.7 ± 7
SXR fluence –6 ± 10 9 ± 7 1 ± 11 8 ± 6
Coronographic speed (VEXP = 2VCAT) –22 ± 29 30.6 ± 18 –14.6 ± 30 28 ± 17
Coronographic speed (VEXP = 1.5VCAT) –9 ± 31 24 ± 21 –2 ± 33 23 ± 22

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