Difference in scores with 95% confidence interval for M-threshold event between the RWCJ forecast and the persistence method. The magenta, cyan, yellow, red, and blue bars stand for 2000–2015 (overall), 2000–2002 (subset-1), 2003–2005 (subset-2), 2006–2010 (subset-3), and 2011–2015 (subset-4), respectively. We note that as the FAR and POFD are negative orientation measures, the 1-FAR and 1-POFD are plotted, which are positive orientation values.