Simulated northern hemisphere temperature changes, relative to AD 950–1250, using the CESM-LME global climate model (data from Otto-Bliesner et al., 2016). Temperature changes have been averaged over periods of interest for each simulation, representing the contribution of different factors to the overall simulated cooling. The temperature anomalies are different for different ensemble members and the differences between them for each simulation type are due to the internal fluctuations in climate, the typical size of which are indicated by the red bars, which are larger for shorter averaging periods.