Fig. 4


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Brier skill score (BSS) decomposition for the McIntosh static (panel a) and evolution-dependent (panel b) forecast methods for ≥C1.0 flares. BS components of reliability (data points), resolution (solid horizontal lines), and uncertainty (printed values) are displayed in panels a and b as a function of rate-correction factor (RCF) applied to the SC22 flaring rates. The resulting BSS is presented in panel c, also as a function of RCF applied to the SS22 flaring rates, for the static (red filled squares) and evolution-dependent (blue open circle) methods, with maximum values of BSS indicated by vertical dashed lines for both cases.

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