Fig. A.1


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Reliability diagrams (panel a), sharpness (i.e., probability occurrence) plots (panel b), and ROC curves (panel c) for ≥M1.0 flares. Data for the McIntosh static forecast method are indicted by red filled squares (panels a and c) and solid histogram (panel b), while the evolution-dependent method is depicted by blue open circles (panels a and c) and dashed histogram (panel b).

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