Forecasting of SYMH and ASYH indices for geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 including St. Patrick’s day, 2015 storm using NARX neural network | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

System Science: Application to Space Weather Analysis, Modelling, and Forecasting

Open Access

Table 2

Geomagnetic storm durations considered for testing the networks of SYMH and ASYH.

	Start			End			Strength	SYMH NARX		SYMH base mod.		ASYH NARX		ASYH base mod.
No.	Y	M	D	Y	M	D	Min. SYMH (nT)	R	RMSE	R	RMSE	R	RMSE	R	RMSE
1	2014	2	15	2014	2	26	−127	0.9	12.51	0.78	16.83	0.85	12.51	0.40	25.37
2	2014	2	27	2014	3	7	−101	0.9	9.17	0.76	14.12	0.66	9.84	0.45	12.75
3	2014	4	11	2014	4	17	−92	0.87	14.55	0.82	13.51	0.78	11.54	0.62	14.45
4	2015	1	7	2015	1	18	−135	0.84	13.44	0.57	17.10	0.76	12.59	0.20	24.15
5	2015	4	8	2015	4	25	−89	0.89	10.3	0.75	13.99	0.69	12.05	0.43	17.96
6	2015	6	7	2015	6	12	−105	0.85	12.44	0.68	18.09	0.58	11.17	0.02	19.70
7	2015	6	21	2015	7	3	−208	0.87	22.58	0.83	20.84	0.76	20.25	0.62	28.44
8	2015	7	4	2015	7	10	−87	0.91	9.57	0.75	14.70	0.73	10.07	0.30	16.79
9	2015	3	17	2015	4	5	−234	0.93	21.34	0.84	18.35	0.68	20.43	0.66	21.09

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