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Table 4

Verification statistics for the prediction of C+, M+ and X+ class flare events from data between 2002 and 2017.

Parameters C+ class flares M+ class flares X+ class flares
Sunspot groups 8598 8598 8598
Sunspot groups with flares 1841 347 47
p f 0.214 0.040 0.005
o 0.214 0.040 0.005
Median p f 0.160 0.020 0.002
0.143 0.049 0.010
σ o 0.410 0.197 0.074
p f |o = 1〉 0.337 0.127 0.036
p f |o = 0〉 0.136 0.037 0.005
Median p f |o = 1 0.337 0.107 0.035
Median p f |o = 0 0.136 0.018 0.002
SD p f |o = 1 0.170 0.085 0.023
SD p f |o = 0 0.112 0.043 0.009
Linear association 0.469 0.364 0.232

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