Open Access
Table 4
Verification statistics for the prediction of C+, M+ and X+ class flare events from data between 2002 and 2017.
| Parameters | C+ class flares | M+ class flares | X+ class flares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunspot groups | 8598 | 8598 | 8598 |
| Sunspot groups with flares | 1841 | 347 | 47 |
| 〈p f 〉 | 0.214 | 0.040 | 0.005 |
| 〈o〉 | 0.214 | 0.040 | 0.005 |
| Median p f | 0.160 | 0.020 | 0.002 |
|
0.143 | 0.049 | 0.010 |
| σ o | 0.410 | 0.197 | 0.074 |
| 〈p f |o = 1〉 | 0.337 | 0.127 | 0.036 |
| 〈p f |o = 0〉 | 0.136 | 0.037 | 0.005 |
| Median p f |o = 1 | 0.337 | 0.107 | 0.035 |
| Median p f |o = 0 | 0.136 | 0.018 | 0.002 |
| SD p f |o = 1 | 0.170 | 0.085 | 0.023 |
| SD p f |o = 0 | 0.112 | 0.043 | 0.009 |
| Linear association | 0.469 | 0.364 | 0.232 |
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