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Table 4

Short-term model uncertainty in absolute units along with its standard deviation. Uncertainties are also reported in percent units, both relative to the mean and observed flare peak intensity of the training dataset. The right-most column shows the mean flare peak intensity relative to the daily average in percent units for context.

Model interval (nm) σ STM (μW/m2, nm) s σ (μW/m2, nm) σ LTM/ (%) σ LTM/s n,S (%) / (%)
5–10 1.739 0.197 23.6 35.9 13.2
10–15 4.138 0.407 26.8 31.1 77.3
15–20 0.991 0.104 14.8 20.0 6.0
20–25 0.844 0.077 15.8 30.0 7.0
25–30 1.060 0.104 16.8 34.1 11.2
30–35 3.297 0.347 12.7 21.7 19.4
35–40 1.840 0.252 27.0 48.5 24.2
40–45 0.347 0.121 23.3 55.5 20.2
45–50 0.230 0.032 12.8 20.8 14.2
50–55 0.186 0.026 14.0 22.6 14.2
55–60 0.682 0.116 19.2 27.4 18.4
60–65 0.649 0.090 26.2 38.4 11.7
65–70 0.303 0.033 24.2 72.8 25.5
70–75 0.656 0.095 27.9 77.1 40.3
75–80 1.502 0.169 30.8 57.7 34.2
80–85 1.765 0.227 30.9 57.2 31.8
85–90 2.362 0.370 31.3 63.1 22.7
90–95 2.513 0.278 31.0 65.3 28.4
95–100 5.459 0.807 25.0 39.3 62.1
100–105 3.972 0.598 28.5 45.3 29.4
105–110 1.070 0.140 19.6 17.2 28.4
110–115 0.943 0.123 20.0 17.8 23.3
117–127 21.593 4.246 11.0 43.6 26.5

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