Table 4
Short-term model uncertainty in absolute units along with its standard deviation. Uncertainties are also reported in percent units, both relative to the mean and observed flare peak intensity of the training dataset. The right-most column shows the mean flare peak intensity relative to the daily average in percent units for context.
| Model interval (nm) | σ STM (μW/m2, nm) | s σ (μW/m2, nm) |
σ
LTM/ (%) |
σ LTM/s n,S (%) |
 / (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–10 | 1.739 | 0.197 | 23.6 | 35.9 | 13.2 |
| 10–15 | 4.138 | 0.407 | 26.8 | 31.1 | 77.3 |
| 15–20 | 0.991 | 0.104 | 14.8 | 20.0 | 6.0 |
| 20–25 | 0.844 | 0.077 | 15.8 | 30.0 | 7.0 |
| 25–30 | 1.060 | 0.104 | 16.8 | 34.1 | 11.2 |
| 30–35 | 3.297 | 0.347 | 12.7 | 21.7 | 19.4 |
| 35–40 | 1.840 | 0.252 | 27.0 | 48.5 | 24.2 |
| 40–45 | 0.347 | 0.121 | 23.3 | 55.5 | 20.2 |
| 45–50 | 0.230 | 0.032 | 12.8 | 20.8 | 14.2 |
| 50–55 | 0.186 | 0.026 | 14.0 | 22.6 | 14.2 |
| 55–60 | 0.682 | 0.116 | 19.2 | 27.4 | 18.4 |
| 60–65 | 0.649 | 0.090 | 26.2 | 38.4 | 11.7 |
| 65–70 | 0.303 | 0.033 | 24.2 | 72.8 | 25.5 |
| 70–75 | 0.656 | 0.095 | 27.9 | 77.1 | 40.3 |
| 75–80 | 1.502 | 0.169 | 30.8 | 57.7 | 34.2 |
| 80–85 | 1.765 | 0.227 | 30.9 | 57.2 | 31.8 |
| 85–90 | 2.362 | 0.370 | 31.3 | 63.1 | 22.7 |
| 90–95 | 2.513 | 0.278 | 31.0 | 65.3 | 28.4 |
| 95–100 | 5.459 | 0.807 | 25.0 | 39.3 | 62.1 |
| 100–105 | 3.972 | 0.598 | 28.5 | 45.3 | 29.4 |
| 105–110 | 1.070 | 0.140 | 19.6 | 17.2 | 28.4 |
| 110–115 | 0.943 | 0.123 | 20.0 | 17.8 | 23.3 |
| 117–127 | 21.593 | 4.246 | 11.0 | 43.6 | 26.5 |
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