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Data sample. Probabilistic forecasts and events for M-class flares (histograms, left panels; time series, right panels). From the top, forecasting methods (color) are: MAG4 (black), ASSA (blue), ASAP (green), NOAA (red), MOSWOC (purple), and MCSTAT (gold). In the right panels, vertical grey lines signal positive events, i.e., days when at least one M-class flare was observed.
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