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Fig. 5

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Left: For probabilistic metrics three values are shown per metric: (1) metrics values for ensemble members are displayed as box-and-whiskers; (2) the metric of the equal-weights ensemble (black circle); (3) the optimized (or best performing) ensemble (red circle). Right: metric and threshold values for categorical-metric ensembles. Gray and blue box-and-whiskers plots correspond to the ensemble members’ metrics and thresholds. Red circles and diamonds correspond to the optimized-ensemble metrics and thresholds. For better comparison, metrics in both panels that require minimization (i.e., BRIER, MAE, and REL) are displayed as 1− (metric value).

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