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Fig. 6


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ROC curves (left column) and reliability diagrams (right column) for M-class flare forecasts, comparing the top ranking individual method types and final ensemble performer (upper row), and for constrained and unconstrained ensembles based on probabilistic (middle row) and categorical (lower row) metrics. Note that the center diagonal line in the ROC curves represents no skill, while for the reliability diagrams it indicates perfect reliability. The shaded areas in the reliability diagrams indicate regions that contribute positively to the Brier skill score (not shown/used here).

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