Open Access
Research Article
Table B.1
Table with validation metrics for M-class flare forecasts. Note that there are 189 event days and 907 non-event days out of 1096 total days, and for all cases the decomposed Brier uncertainty is 0.143.
| Ensemble grouping | Forecast name/ensemble label | Brier score | Reliability | Resolution | ROC area | Group rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Members | ASAP | 0.151 | 0.0163 | 0.0079 | 0.575 | 7 |
| ASSA | 0.150 | 0.0235 | 0.0167 | 0.738 | 5 | |
| MAG4 | 0.126 | 0.0064 | 0.0237 | 0.772 | 4 | |
| MCSTAT | 0.183 | 0.0606 | 0.0200 | 0.769 | 6 | |
| MOSWOC | 0.116 | 0.0056 | 0.0327 | 0.842 | 1 | |
| NOAA | 0.116 | 0.0070 | 0.0335 | 0.838 | 2 | |
| Equal-weights | 0.121 | 0.0046 | 0.0264 | 0.816 | 3 | |
| Prob.-optimized | BRIER | 0.110 | 0.0009 | 0.0338 | 0.848 | 8 |
| BRIER_unc | 0.107 | 0.0007 | 0.0368 | 0.853 | 2 | |
| LCC | 0.109 | 0.0016 | 0.0355 | 0.848 | 6 | |
| LCC_unc | 0.106 | 0.0019 | 0.0387 | 0.853 | 2 | |
| MAE | 0.126 | 0.0064 | 0.0237 | 0.772 | 15 | |
| MAE_unc | 0.127 | 0.0082 | 0.0244 | 0.811 | 15 | |
| NLCC_ρ | 0.110 | 0.0011 | 0.0334 | 0.849 | 7 | |
| NLCC_ρ_unc | 0.107 | 0.0007 | 0.0366 | 0.854 | 1 | |
| NLCC_τ | 0.110 | 0.0018 | 0.0344 | 0.848 | 8 | |
| NLCC_τ_unc | 0.109 | 0.0011 | 0.0351 | 0.856 | 2 | |
| REL | 0.114 | 0.0013 | 0.0298 | 0.831 | 14 | |
| REL_unc | 0.111 | 0.0008 | 0.0322 | 0.841 | 12 | |
| RES | 0.110 | 0.0009 | 0.0332 | 0.841 | 11 | |
| RES_unc | 0.114 | 0.0010 | 0.0322 | 0.832 | 13 | |
| ROC | 0.109 | 0.0021 | 0.0357 | 0.847 | 8 | |
| ROC_unc | 0.108 | 0.0010 | 0.0357 | 0.853 | 5 | |
| Cat.-optimized | ACC | 0.112 | 0.0023 | 0.0335 | 0.890 | 10 |
| ACC_unc | 0.126 | 0.0131 | 0.0297 | 0.625 | 11 | |
| BRIER_C | 0.111 | 0.0008 | 0.0327 | 0.891 | 8 | |
| BRIER_C_unc | 0.129 | 0.0156 | 0.0289 | 0.596 | 12 | |
| CSI | 0.109 | 0.0013 | 0.0350 | 0.889 | 1 | |
| CSI_unc | 0.111 | 0.0062 | 0.0376 | 0.630 | 2 | |
| GSS | 0.110 | 0.0008 | 0.0338 | 0.839 | 3 | |
| GSS_unc | 0.129 | 0.0221 | 0.0360 | 0.878 | 7 | |
| HSS | 0.111 | 0.0033 | 0.0349 | 0.889 | 7 | |
| HSS_unc | 0.108 | 0.0021 | 0.0372 | 0.620 | 5 | |
| TSS | 0.111 | 0.0013 | 0.0348 | 0.856 | 3 | |
| TSS_unc | 0.130 | 0.0227 | 0.0359 | 0.879 | 9 |
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