Ensemble forecasting of major solar flares: methods for combining models | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

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Table B.1

Table with validation metrics for M-class flare forecasts. Note that there are 189 event days and 907 non-event days out of 1096 total days, and for all cases the decomposed Brier uncertainty is 0.143.

Ensemble grouping	Forecast name/ensemble label	Brier score	Reliability	Resolution	ROC area	Group rank
Members	ASAP	0.151	0.0163	0.0079	0.575	7
	ASSA	0.150	0.0235	0.0167	0.738	5
	MAG4	0.126	0.0064	0.0237	0.772	4
	MCSTAT	0.183	0.0606	0.0200	0.769	6
	MOSWOC	0.116	0.0056	0.0327	0.842	1
	NOAA	0.116	0.0070	0.0335	0.838	2
	Equal-weights	0.121	0.0046	0.0264	0.816	3
Prob.-optimized	BRIER	0.110	0.0009	0.0338	0.848	8
	BRIER_unc	0.107	0.0007	0.0368	0.853	2
	LCC	0.109	0.0016	0.0355	0.848	6
	LCC_unc	0.106	0.0019	0.0387	0.853	2
	MAE	0.126	0.0064	0.0237	0.772	15
	MAE_unc	0.127	0.0082	0.0244	0.811	15
	NLCC_ρ	0.110	0.0011	0.0334	0.849	7
	NLCC_ρ_unc	0.107	0.0007	0.0366	0.854	1
	NLCC_τ	0.110	0.0018	0.0344	0.848	8
	NLCC_τ_unc	0.109	0.0011	0.0351	0.856	2
	REL	0.114	0.0013	0.0298	0.831	14
	REL_unc	0.111	0.0008	0.0322	0.841	12
	RES	0.110	0.0009	0.0332	0.841	11
	RES_unc	0.114	0.0010	0.0322	0.832	13
	ROC	0.109	0.0021	0.0357	0.847	8
	ROC_unc	0.108	0.0010	0.0357	0.853	5
Cat.-optimized	ACC	0.112	0.0023	0.0335	0.890	10
	ACC_unc	0.126	0.0131	0.0297	0.625	11
	BRIER_C	0.111	0.0008	0.0327	0.891	8
	BRIER_C_unc	0.129	0.0156	0.0289	0.596	12
	CSI	0.109	0.0013	0.0350	0.889	1
	CSI_unc	0.111	0.0062	0.0376	0.630	2
	GSS	0.110	0.0008	0.0338	0.839	3
	GSS_unc	0.129	0.0221	0.0360	0.878	7
	HSS	0.111	0.0033	0.0349	0.889	7
	HSS_unc	0.108	0.0021	0.0372	0.620	5
	TSS	0.111	0.0013	0.0348	0.856	3
	TSS_unc	0.130	0.0227	0.0359	0.879	9

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