Open Access
Research Article

Table B.1

Table with validation metrics for M-class flare forecasts. Note that there are 189 event days and 907 non-event days out of 1096 total days, and for all cases the decomposed Brier uncertainty is 0.143.

Ensemble grouping Forecast name/ensemble label Brier score Reliability Resolution ROC area Group rank
Members ASAP 0.151 0.0163 0.0079 0.575 7
ASSA 0.150 0.0235 0.0167 0.738 5
MAG4 0.126 0.0064 0.0237 0.772 4
MCSTAT 0.183 0.0606 0.0200 0.769 6
MOSWOC 0.116 0.0056 0.0327 0.842 1
NOAA 0.116 0.0070 0.0335 0.838 2
Equal-weights 0.121 0.0046 0.0264 0.816 3
Prob.-optimized BRIER 0.110 0.0009 0.0338 0.848 8
BRIER_unc 0.107 0.0007 0.0368 0.853 2
LCC 0.109 0.0016 0.0355 0.848 6
LCC_unc 0.106 0.0019 0.0387 0.853 2
MAE 0.126 0.0064 0.0237 0.772 15
MAE_unc 0.127 0.0082 0.0244 0.811 15
NLCC_ρ 0.110 0.0011 0.0334 0.849 7
NLCC_ρ_unc 0.107 0.0007 0.0366 0.854 1
NLCC_τ 0.110 0.0018 0.0344 0.848 8
NLCC_τ_unc 0.109 0.0011 0.0351 0.856 2
REL 0.114 0.0013 0.0298 0.831 14
REL_unc 0.111 0.0008 0.0322 0.841 12
RES 0.110 0.0009 0.0332 0.841 11
RES_unc 0.114 0.0010 0.0322 0.832 13
ROC 0.109 0.0021 0.0357 0.847 8
ROC_unc 0.108 0.0010 0.0357 0.853 5
Cat.-optimized ACC 0.112 0.0023 0.0335 0.890 10
ACC_unc 0.126 0.0131 0.0297 0.625 11
BRIER_C 0.111 0.0008 0.0327 0.891 8
BRIER_C_unc 0.129 0.0156 0.0289 0.596 12
CSI 0.109 0.0013 0.0350 0.889 1
CSI_unc 0.111 0.0062 0.0376 0.630 2
GSS 0.110 0.0008 0.0338 0.839 3
GSS_unc 0.129 0.0221 0.0360 0.878 7
HSS 0.111 0.0033 0.0349 0.889 7
HSS_unc 0.108 0.0021 0.0372 0.620 5
TSS 0.111 0.0013 0.0348 0.856 3
TSS_unc 0.130 0.0227 0.0359 0.879 9

Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.

Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.

Initial download of the metrics may take a while.