Open Access
Research Article
Table B.2
Table with validation metrics for X-class flare forecasts. Note that there are 17 event days and 1079 non-event days out of 1096 total days, and for all cases the decomposed Brier uncertainty is 0.015.
| Ensemble grouping | Forecast name/ensemble label | Brier score | Reliability | Resolution | ROC area | Group rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Members | ASAP | 0.047 | 0.0319 | 0.0002 | 0.534 | 7 |
| ASSA | 0.018 | 0.0028 | 0.0000 | 0.716 | 6 | |
| MAG4 | 0.016 | 0.0030 | 0.0024 | 0.767 | 2 | |
| MCSTAT | 0.026 | 0.0115 | 0.0008 | 0.878 | 3 | |
| MOSWOC | 0.017 | 0.0049 | 0.0035 | 0.879 | 1 | |
| NOAA | 0.018 | 0.0046 | 0.0015 | 0.834 | 3 | |
| Equal-weights | 0.019 | 0.0045 | 0.0008 | 0.874 | 3 | |
| Prob.-optimized | BRIER | 0.016 | 0.0030 | 0.0027 | 0.888 | 4 |
| BRIER_unc | 0.015 | 0.0023 | 0.0023 | 0.820 | 7 | |
| LCC | 0.016 | 0.0030 | 0.0027 | 0.896 | 1 | |
| LCC_unc | 0.015 | 0.0031 | 0.0033 | 0.879 | 1 | |
| MAE | 0.015 | 0.0024 | 0.0024 | 0.768 | 13 | |
| MAE_unc | 0.016 | 0.0020 | 0.0015 | 0.680 | 15 | |
| NLCC_ρ | 0.018 | 0.0051 | 0.0026 | 0.909 | 4 | |
| NLCC_ρ_unc | 0.016 | 0.0028 | 0.0017 | 0.906 | 3 | |
| NLCC_τ | 0.018 | 0.0050 | 0.0023 | 0.909 | 4 | |
| NLCC_τ_unc | 0.020 | 0.0067 | 0.0018 | 0.919 | 7 | |
| REL | 0.017 | 0.0027 | 0.0014 | 0.896 | 7 | |
| REL_unc | 0.015 | 0.0019 | 0.0018 | 0.865 | 10 | |
| RES | 0.017 | 0.0040 | 0.0027 | 0.895 | 14 | |
| RES_unc | 0.016 | 0.0024 | 0.0014 | 0.894 | 10 | |
| ROC | 0.018 | 0.0052 | 0.0025 | 0.908 | 10 | |
| ROC_unc | 0.026 | 0.0132 | 0.0021 | 0.887 | 16 | |
| Cat.-optimized | ACC | 0.017 | 0.0033 | 0.0018 | 0.890 | 2 |
| ACC_unc | 0.016 | 0.0032 | 0.0027 | 0.625 | 7 | |
| BRIER_C | 0.017 | 0.0033 | 0.0017 | 0.891 | 2 | |
| BRIER_C_unc | 0.016 | 0.0032 | 0.0027 | 0.596 | 9 | |
| CSI | 0.016 | 0.0030 | 0.0026 | 0.889 | 1 | |
| CSI_unc | 0.015 | 0.0038 | 0.0045 | 0.630 | 5 | |
| GSS | 0.022 | 0.0076 | 0.0009 | 0.839 | 12 | |
| GSS_unc | 0.019 | 0.0055 | 0.0021 | 0.878 | 9 | |
| HSS | 0.016 | 0.0034 | 0.0030 | 0.889 | 2 | |
| HSS_unc | 0.015 | 0.0038 | 0.0046 | 0.620 | 6 | |
| TSS | 0.021 | 0.0068 | 0.0010 | 0.856 | 11 | |
| TSS_unc | 0.018 | 0.0050 | 0.0024 | 0.879 | 7 |
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