Ensemble forecasting of major solar flares: methods for combining models | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

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Table B.2

Table with validation metrics for X-class flare forecasts. Note that there are 17 event days and 1079 non-event days out of 1096 total days, and for all cases the decomposed Brier uncertainty is 0.015.

Ensemble grouping	Forecast name/ensemble label	Brier score	Reliability	Resolution	ROC area	Group rank
Members	ASAP	0.047	0.0319	0.0002	0.534	7
	ASSA	0.018	0.0028	0.0000	0.716	6
	MAG4	0.016	0.0030	0.0024	0.767	2
	MCSTAT	0.026	0.0115	0.0008	0.878	3
	MOSWOC	0.017	0.0049	0.0035	0.879	1
	NOAA	0.018	0.0046	0.0015	0.834	3
	Equal-weights	0.019	0.0045	0.0008	0.874	3
Prob.-optimized	BRIER	0.016	0.0030	0.0027	0.888	4
	BRIER_unc	0.015	0.0023	0.0023	0.820	7
	LCC	0.016	0.0030	0.0027	0.896	1
	LCC_unc	0.015	0.0031	0.0033	0.879	1
	MAE	0.015	0.0024	0.0024	0.768	13
	MAE_unc	0.016	0.0020	0.0015	0.680	15
	NLCC_ρ	0.018	0.0051	0.0026	0.909	4
	NLCC_ρ_unc	0.016	0.0028	0.0017	0.906	3
	NLCC_τ	0.018	0.0050	0.0023	0.909	4
	NLCC_τ_unc	0.020	0.0067	0.0018	0.919	7
	REL	0.017	0.0027	0.0014	0.896	7
	REL_unc	0.015	0.0019	0.0018	0.865	10
	RES	0.017	0.0040	0.0027	0.895	14
	RES_unc	0.016	0.0024	0.0014	0.894	10
	ROC	0.018	0.0052	0.0025	0.908	10
	ROC_unc	0.026	0.0132	0.0021	0.887	16
Cat.-optimized	ACC	0.017	0.0033	0.0018	0.890	2
	ACC_unc	0.016	0.0032	0.0027	0.625	7
	BRIER_C	0.017	0.0033	0.0017	0.891	2
	BRIER_C_unc	0.016	0.0032	0.0027	0.596	9
	CSI	0.016	0.0030	0.0026	0.889	1
	CSI_unc	0.015	0.0038	0.0045	0.630	5
	GSS	0.022	0.0076	0.0009	0.839	12
	GSS_unc	0.019	0.0055	0.0021	0.878	9
	HSS	0.016	0.0034	0.0030	0.889	2
	HSS_unc	0.015	0.0038	0.0046	0.620	6
	TSS	0.021	0.0068	0.0010	0.856	11
	TSS_unc	0.018	0.0050	0.0024	0.879	7

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