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Research Article

Table B.2

Table with validation metrics for X-class flare forecasts. Note that there are 17 event days and 1079 non-event days out of 1096 total days, and for all cases the decomposed Brier uncertainty is 0.015.

Ensemble grouping Forecast name/ensemble label Brier score Reliability Resolution ROC area Group rank
Members ASAP 0.047 0.0319 0.0002 0.534 7
ASSA 0.018 0.0028 0.0000 0.716 6
MAG4 0.016 0.0030 0.0024 0.767 2
MCSTAT 0.026 0.0115 0.0008 0.878 3
MOSWOC 0.017 0.0049 0.0035 0.879 1
NOAA 0.018 0.0046 0.0015 0.834 3
Equal-weights 0.019 0.0045 0.0008 0.874 3
Prob.-optimized BRIER 0.016 0.0030 0.0027 0.888 4
BRIER_unc 0.015 0.0023 0.0023 0.820 7
LCC 0.016 0.0030 0.0027 0.896 1
LCC_unc 0.015 0.0031 0.0033 0.879 1
MAE 0.015 0.0024 0.0024 0.768 13
MAE_unc 0.016 0.0020 0.0015 0.680 15
NLCC_ρ 0.018 0.0051 0.0026 0.909 4
NLCC_ρ_unc 0.016 0.0028 0.0017 0.906 3
NLCC_τ 0.018 0.0050 0.0023 0.909 4
NLCC_τ_unc 0.020 0.0067 0.0018 0.919 7
REL 0.017 0.0027 0.0014 0.896 7
REL_unc 0.015 0.0019 0.0018 0.865 10
RES 0.017 0.0040 0.0027 0.895 14
RES_unc 0.016 0.0024 0.0014 0.894 10
ROC 0.018 0.0052 0.0025 0.908 10
ROC_unc 0.026 0.0132 0.0021 0.887 16
Cat.-optimized ACC 0.017 0.0033 0.0018 0.890 2
ACC_unc 0.016 0.0032 0.0027 0.625 7
BRIER_C 0.017 0.0033 0.0017 0.891 2
BRIER_C_unc 0.016 0.0032 0.0027 0.596 9
CSI 0.016 0.0030 0.0026 0.889 1
CSI_unc 0.015 0.0038 0.0045 0.630 5
GSS 0.022 0.0076 0.0009 0.839 12
GSS_unc 0.019 0.0055 0.0021 0.878 9
HSS 0.016 0.0034 0.0030 0.889 2
HSS_unc 0.015 0.0038 0.0046 0.620 6
TSS 0.021 0.0068 0.0010 0.856 11
TSS_unc 0.018 0.0050 0.0024 0.879 7

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