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F10.7 and the error in F10.7/vTEC. In (a) is the Earth’s actual F10.7 value, FE, which is only available daily (black dots), the F10.7 value, F, used as a proxy for truth (green), as well as the prior (blue) and posterior (red) mean estimates of the truth. In (b) is the root mean square error (RMSE) of the prior and posterior mean as compared with the standard deviation of the ensemble for the F10.7 prediction (in TECU). In (c) is the RMSE of the prior and posterior mean as compared with the standard deviation of the ensemble for the vTEC prediction averaged between −30° S and 30° N degrees latitude.
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