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Table 1
The comparisons of prediction efficiencies of ≥2 MeV electron hourly fluences of different models.
Model | Our transformer model | Persistence model | LSTM model by Wei et al. (2018) | MLP model by Son et al. (2022) | MLP model by Shin et al. (2016) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE | 0.961 | 0.955 | 0.900 | 0.970 | 0.960 |
RMSE | 0.2136 | 0.2155 | 0.2855 | – | – |
Model input | Flux + MLT | ≥2 MeV electron hourly fluence 1 h ago | Flux + Kp + R0 | Flux + Vsw + N + T + |B| + Bz + Dst + Kp | A total of 17 input parameters |
Model output | ≥2 MeV electron hourly fluence | ≥2 MeV electron hourly fluence | ≥2 MeV electron hourly fluence | ≥2 MeV electron hourly fluence | ≥2 MeV electron hourly fluence |
Satellites | GOES-10 | GOES-10 | GOES-8, GOES-10, GOES-11, GOES-13 | GOES-15, GOES-16 | GOES-15 |
Test time | 2005 | 2005 | 2008 | October to December from 2011 to 2021 | 2014 |
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