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Table 2
The comparisons of prediction efficiencies of ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences of different models.
| Model | Our transformer model | Persistence model | Geomagnetic pulsation model by He et al. (2013) | EOF model by Li et al. (2017) | EMD model by Qian et al. (2020) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 0.857 | 0.507 | 0.720 | 0.664 | 0.790 |
| RMSE | 0.3301 | 0.6122 | – | – | 0.3800 |
| Model input | Flux + MLT | ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences 1 day ago | Flux + Pi12 + Pc5 | Flux + Vsw + N + Pd + Bz + Dst + ap + AE | Flux + solar wind parameters + geomagnetic indices |
| Model output | ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences | ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences | ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences | ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences | ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences |
| Satellites | GOES-10 | GOES-10 | GOES-12 | GOES-10 | GOES-10 |
| Test time | 2005 | 2005 | 2005 | 2005 | 2005 |
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