Technical Article

Prediction and warning system of SEP events and solar flares for risk estimation in space launch operations

¹ UPC-IonSAT Research Group, Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), C/Jordi Girona 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
² Space Weather Group, University of Malaga (UMA), Complejo Tecnológico, Campus de Teatinos, 29071 Málaga, Spain
³ Space Weather Research Group, Bradford University (UoB), Richmond Road, BD7 1DP Bradford, UK
⁴ ESA Space Environments & Effects section (TEC-EES), ESA-ESTEC, Keplerlaan 1, 2201 AZ Noordwijk, The Netherlands

^* Corresponding author: alberto.garcia.rigo@upc.edu

Received: 30 January 2015
Accepted: 11 May 2016

Abstract

A web-based prototype system for predicting solar energetic particle (SEP) events and solar flares for use by space launch operators is presented. The system has been developed as a result of the European Space Agency (ESA) project SEPsFLAREs (Solar Events Prediction system For space LAunch Risk Estimation). The system consists of several modules covering the prediction of solar flares and early SEP Warnings (labeled Warning tool), the prediction of SEP event occurrence and onset, and the prediction of SEP event peak and duration. In addition, the system acquires data for solar flare nowcasting from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-based techniques (GNSS Solar Flare Detector, GSFLAD and the Sunlit Ionosphere Sudden Total Electron Content Enhancement Detector, SISTED) as additional independent products that may also prove useful for space launch operators.