J. Space Weather Space Clim.
Volume 7, 2017
Developing New Space Weather Tools: Transitioning fundamental science to operational prediction systems
|Number of page(s)||9|
|Published online||01 November 2017|
Forecasting E > 50-MeV proton events with the proton prediction system (PPS)
Space Vehicles Directorate, AFRL/RVBXS,
Bldg 570, 3550 Aberdeen Dr. SE,
2 Atmospheric Environmental Research, 2201 Buena Vista Drive SE, Suite 407, Albuquerque, NM 87106, USA
* Correspondence: firstname.lastname@example.org
Accepted: 6 September 2017
Forecasting solar energetic (E > 10-MeV) particle (SEP) events is an important element of space weather. While several models have been developed for use in forecasting such events, satellite operations are particularly vulnerable to higher-energy (≥50-MeV) SEP events. Here we validate one model, the proton prediction system (PPS), which extends to that energy range. We first develop a data base of E ≥ 50-MeV proton events >1.0 proton flux units (pfu) events observed on the GOES satellite over the period 1986–2016. We modify the PPS to forecast proton events at the reduced level of 1 pfu and run PPS for four different solar input parameters: (1) all ≥M5 solar X-ray flares; (2) all ≥200 sfu 8800-MHz bursts with associated ≥M5 flares; (3) all ≥500 sfu 8800-MHz bursts; and (4) all ≥5000 sfu 8800-MHz bursts. The validation contingency tables and skill scores are calculated for all groups and used as a guide to use of the PPS. We plot the false alarms and missed events as functions of solar source longitude, and argue that the longitude-dependence employed by PPS does not match modern observations. Use of the radio fluxes as the PPS driver tends to result in too many false alarms at the 500 sfu threshold, and misses more events than the soft X-ray predictor at the 5000 sfu threshold.
© S.W. Kahler et al., Published by EDP Sciences 2017
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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