Research Article

The spheroid CME model in EUHFORIA

¹ Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence – SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Av. Circulaire 3, 1180 Brussels, Belgium
² Space Science Center, University of New Hampshire, 8 College Road, Durham, NH 03824, USA
³ Predictive Science Inc., 9990 Mesa Rim Rd, Suite 170, San Diego, CA 92121, USA

^* Corresponding author: camilla.scolini@oma.be

Received: 16 September 2023
Accepted: 4 April 2024

Abstract

Predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation and impact in the heliosphere, in either research or operational settings, are usually performed by employing magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. Within such simulations, the CME ejecta is often described as a hydrodynamic pulse that lacks an internal magnetic field and is characterized by a spherical geometry – leading to the so-called cone CME model. White-light observations of CMEs in the corona, however, reveal that the morphology of these structures resembles more closely that of a croissant, i.e., exhibiting an elongated cross-section of their front. It follows that, in space weather forecasts, the assumption of a spherical geometry may result in erroneous predictions of CME impacts in the heliosphere in terms of hit/miss and arrival time/speed, especially in the case of flank encounters. A spheroid CME model is expected to provide a more accurate description of the elongated morphology that is often observed in CMEs. In this paper, we describe the implementation and initial validation of the spheroid CME model within the MHD EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) code. We perform EUHFORIA simulations of an idealized CME as well as a “real” event to compare the spheroidal model with the traditional cone one. We show how the initial ejecta geometry can lead to substantially different estimates in terms of CME impact, arrival time/speed, and geoeffectiveness, especially with increasing distance to the CME nose.