Table 1.
The kinematics input to the DBM and the resulting predicted arrival times and speeds (and errors therein) of Feature 2 at L1, corresponding to the extreme range of drag parameter. In the bottom panel, best-fit parameters, predicted arrival times and speeds (and errors therein) estimated from time-elongation track fitting methods are given. The STEREO-A and B shown in parentheses for each method denotes the spacecraft from which data is used. Negative (positive) errors in predicted arrival time correspond to a predicted arrival time that is before (after) the actual CME arrival time determined from in-situ measurements. Negative (positive) errors in predicted speed correspond to a predicted speed that is less that (more than) than actual CME speed at L1.
| Methods | Kinematics as inputs in DBM (t0, R0 [R⊙], v0 [km s−1]) | Predicted arrival time using kinematics + DBM (UT) (γ = 0.2 to 2.0 [10−7 km−1]) | Predicted transit speed at L1 (km s−1) (γ = 0.2 to 2.0 [10−7 km−1]) | Error in predicted arrival time (hrs) (γ = 0.2 to 2.0 [10−7 km−1]) | Error in predicted transit speed (km s−1) (γ = 0.2 to 2.0 [10−7 km−1]) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP (STEREO-A) | 10 Oct. 03:30, 137, 230 | 12 Oct. 12:51 to 12 Oct. 03:22 | 270 to 327 | 23.7 to 14.2 | −85 to −28 |
| PP (STEREO-B) | 09 Oct. 12:40, 137, 360 | 11 Oct. 05:14 to 11 Oct. 05:21 | 360 to 358 | −8 to −7.8 | 5 to 3 |
| FP (STEREO-A) | 09 Oct. 10:30, 149, 380 | 10 Oct. 18:54 to 10 Oct. 19:27 | 378 to 368 | −18.2 to −17.6 | 23 to 13 |
| FP (STEREO-B) | 08 Oct. 23:39, 130, 464 | 10 Oct. 11:05 to 10 Oct. 15:28 | 438 to 377 | −26.3 to −21.7 | 83 to 22 |
| HM (STEREO-A) | 09 Oct. 11:30, 132, 285 | 11 Oct. 16:48 to 11 Oct. 12:43 | 298 to 330 | 3.6 to −0.4 | −57 to −25 |
| HM (STEREO-B) | 09 Oct. 12:40, 158, 430 | 10 Oct. 13:29 to 10 Oct. 15:07 | 420 to 382 | −23.7 to −22.1 | 65 to 27 |
| GT | 09 Oct. 12:40, 159, 450 | 10 Oct. 12:03 to 10 Oct. 14:06 | 436 to 385 | −25.2 to −23.2 | 81 to 30 |
| TAS | 09 Oct. 12:40, 131, 280 | 11 Oct. 19:21 to 11 Oct. 14:41 | 295 to 330 | 6.1 to 1.4 | −60 to −25 |
| SSSE |
09 Oct. 12:40, 154, 385 |
10 Oct. 18:09 to 10 Oct. 18:45 |
383 to 370 |
−19.1 to −18.5 |
28 to 15 |
| Time-elongation track fitting methods |
|||||
| Methods |
Best-fit parameters (tα=0, Φ [°], v [km s−1]) |
Predicted arrival time at L1 (UT) |
Error in predicted arrival time |
Error in predicted speed at L1 (km s−1) |
Longitude (°) |
| FPF (STEREO-A) | 06 Oct. 07:44, 90, 378 | 10 Oct. 20:29 | −16.9 | 23 | −7 |
| FPF (STEREO-B) | 06 Oct. 04:14, 56.2, 369 | 10 Oct. 19:25 | −17.7 | 14 | −21.5 |
| HMF (STEREO-A) | 06 Oct. 08:54, 125, 467 | 11 Oct. 07:48 | −5.4 | −18 | −42 |
| HMF (STEREO-B) | 06 Oct. 05:51, 58, 378 | 11 Oct. 01:35 | −11.6 | −10 | −19.8 |
| SSEF (STEREO-A) | 06 Oct. 08:40, 114, 436 | 11 Oct. 09:02 | −4.2 | −13 | −31 |
| SSEF (STEREO-B) | 06 Oct. 05:37, 57.4, 377 | 11 Oct. 05:43 | −7.5 | −12 | −20.4 |
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