Fig. 5.


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Reliability plots for M and X-class flare predictions produced by SEPsFLAREs ASAP with the 24-hour prediction horizon, for the investigated period. The diagonal line (x = y) is a reference to represent perfect predictions. The correlation coefficient between the SEPsFLAREs ASAP’s reliability and the ideal reliability is equal to 0.90 for the 24-hour prediction horizon (0.85 for 6-hour horizon, 0.91 for 12-hour horizon, and 0.74 for 48-hour horizon; not shown in the figure).

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