Table 1.

(A) The default minimum SEPsFLAREs ASAP probabilities to issue a warning. The categorical confidence (D) is derived from the SEP/flare probabilities (B) by using the conversions criteria (C). The default categorical confidence values (D) used to issue warnings from SEPsFLAREs ASAP flare predictions for all the considered prediction horizons (i.e. 6, 12, 24, and 48 h).

(A) Default minimum SEPsFLAREs ASAP probabilities to issue warnings
Flare type ASAP probability (%)
X-class flare >30
M-class flare >35
C-class flare >80

(B) SEP probabilities and custom-width bins
Bin X-class (%) M-class (%) C-class (%)
E90-E15 14.68 1.33 0.03
E15-W15 61.64 1.46 0.00
W15-W45 13.21 5.46 0.19
W45-W75 35.22 5.82 0.04
W75-W90 4.40 2.18 0.15

(C) Default probability boundaries to issue a confidence type
Confidence type Probability boundary
HIGH >10% 
MEDIUM >2% and <= 10%
LOW > = 1% and <= 2%
No warning < 1%

(D) Confidence table
Bin X-class M-class C-class
E90-E15 HIGH LOW No warning
E15-W15 HIGH LOW No warning
W15-W45 HIGH MEDIUM No warning
W45-W75 HIGH MEDIUM No warning
W75-W90 MEDIUM MEDIUM No warning

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