Table 1.
(A) The default minimum SEPsFLAREs ASAP probabilities to issue a warning. The categorical confidence (D) is derived from the SEP/flare probabilities (B) by using the conversions criteria (C). The default categorical confidence values (D) used to issue warnings from SEPsFLAREs ASAP flare predictions for all the considered prediction horizons (i.e. 6, 12, 24, and 48 h).
| (A) Default minimum SEPsFLAREs ASAP probabilities to issue warnings |
|||
| Flare type | ASAP probability (%) | ||
| X-class flare | >30 | ||
| M-class flare | >35 | ||
| C-class flare | >80 | ||
(B) SEP probabilities and custom-width bins |
|||
| Bin | X-class (%) | M-class (%) | C-class (%) |
| E90-E15 | 14.68 | 1.33 | 0.03 |
| E15-W15 | 61.64 | 1.46 | 0.00 |
| W15-W45 | 13.21 | 5.46 | 0.19 |
| W45-W75 | 35.22 | 5.82 | 0.04 |
| W75-W90 | 4.40 | 2.18 | 0.15 |
(C) Default probability boundaries to issue a confidence type |
|||
| Confidence type | Probability boundary | ||
| HIGH | >10% | ||
| MEDIUM | >2% and <= 10% | ||
| LOW | > = 1% and <= 2% | ||
| No warning | < 1% | ||
(D) Confidence table |
|||
| Bin | X-class | M-class | C-class |
| E90-E15 | HIGH | LOW | No warning |
| E15-W15 | HIGH | LOW | No warning |
| W15-W45 | HIGH | MEDIUM | No warning |
| W45-W75 | HIGH | MEDIUM | No warning |
| W75-W90 | MEDIUM | MEDIUM | No warning |
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