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Marginal probability of observing a VTEC anomaly during a time interval of n days (a), conditional probability of a VTEC anomaly given an ICME is observed during the same period, i.e., sensitivity (b), and conditional probability of observing an ICME given that a VTEC anomaly is observed during the time interval, i.e. posterior probability (c) for 2012 data set. Note that the last row represents the probability of observing an ICME.
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