Open Access
Research Article

Table 1.

Forecast results for each of the SEP events that occurred from November 2011 to December 2012 and were considered as well-connected events, using soft X-ray (SXR) and microwave emission (5 and 9 GHz) as input to the UMASEP scheme.

SEP
Flare
Warning time (WCP model)(1)
Result using WCP model(1)
Start time Peak time GOES class Location 5 GHz (min) 9 GHz (min) SXR (min) 5 GHz 9 GHz SXR
2012 Jan 23 Jan 23 M8 N28W36 50 50 45 Hit Hit Hit
05:30 03:59
2012 Jan 27 Jan 27 X1 N27W71 15 15 15 Hit Hit Hit
19:05 18:37
2012 Mar 07 Mar 07 X5 N17E15 25 25 70 Hit Hit Hit
05:10 00:24
2012 Mar 13 Mar 13 M7 N18W62 5 10 10 Hit Hit Hit
18:10 17:41
2012 May 17 May 17 M5 N12W89 5 5 5 Hit Hit Hit
02:10 01:47
2012 Jul 07 Jul 06 X1 S18W50 Miss Miss Miss(2)
04:00 23:08
2012 Jul 12 Jul 12 X1 S16W09 30 25 30 Hit Hit Hit
18:35 17:10
2012 Jul 17 Jul 17 M1 S17W75 10 Miss Miss Hit
17:15 17:15
2012 Sep 28 Sep 27 C3 N08W41 85 85 Hit Hit Miss
03:00 23:57
(1)

WCP is the abbreviation of “well-connected prediction”.

(2)

The UMASEP-10’s WCP model did not predict this event. Due to its gradual start, this event was predicted by UMASEP-10’s poorly-connected event model.

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