Plots of 6 h intervals (7 samples) of time-series parameters from the magnetic field analysis of NOAA AR 11283 for three time intervals. From Top: the evolution of the total magnetic flux, the evolution of the proxy of the free magnetic energy; evolution of the area of strong magnetic shear in the vicinity of the magnetic neutral line; Bottom: the evoluton of the log of the ℛ parameter. The times relative to the issuance times are shown, in these cases the three intervals end just before the X1.8 flare on 2011.09.07, just before the X2.1 flare on 2011.09.06, and a flare-quiet period of 2011.09.7, respectively. That is, this would be an example invoking a super-posed epoch analysis whereas in a forecasting approach the forecast issuance time would likely be a particular time of day.