Table 2
Representative NCI research-mode region-by-region flare classification performance metrics.
| Region-by-region, 2010.05.01–2017.05.31 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event def. | Event rate | Parameter(s) | RC | BSS | ApSS | Optimal H&KSS |
| C + 1 | 0.0879 | ϕtot, σ (∇ h Bz) | 0.937 ± 0.005 | 0.40 ± 0.01 | 0.28 ± 0.01 | 0.68 ± 0.01 |
| M + 1 | 0.0145 | Ee, σ(|hc|) | 0.987 ± 0.001 | 0.26 ± 0.02 | 0.14 ± 0.03 | 0.76 ± 0.02 |
| X + 1 | 0.0013 |  , ℱ (ψNL > 45 °) |
0.9988 ± 0.0003 | 0.12 ± 0.06 | 0.12 ± 0.07 | 0.74 ± 0.07 |
| C + 2 | 0.0837 | ϕtot, σ (∇ h Bz) | 0.936 ± 0.007 | 0.35 ± 0.01 | 0.23 ± 0.01 | 0.64 ± 0.01 |
| M + 2 | 0.0134 | Ee, σ(|hc|) | 0.990 ± 0.001 | 0.22 ± 0.02 | 0.11 ± 0.03 | 0.69 ± 0.02 |
| X + 2 | 0.0013 | FL24,  |
0.9988 ± 0.0002 | 0.13 ± 0.06 | 0.12 ± 0.06 | 0.69 ± 0.07 |
| C + 3 | 0.0767 | ϕtot, log(ℛnwra) | 0.938 ± 0.007 | 0.31 ± 0.01 | 0.19 ± 0.01 | 0.60 ± 0.01 |
| M + 3 | 0.0124 |  ,  |
0.9884 ± 0.0008 | 0.15 ± 0.02 | 0.07 ± 0.02 | 0.66 ± 0.02 |
| X + 3 | 0.0011 | log(ℛnwra),  |
0.9989 ± 0.0002 | 0.11 ± 0.06 | 0.08 ± 0.06 | 0.63 ± 0.10 |
Variable symbols can be found in Leka & Barnes (2003b); Barnes & Leka (2006) except ℱ(ψNL > 45) which indicates the fraction of magnetic neutral line with magnetic shear greater than 45° and FL24 which indicates the prior flare flux (Sect. 3.2.5) for a prior 24 h interval.
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