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Solar wind speed measured by ACE (red curve) covering the time range 2008–2012 with the forecast from the ACE+27 persistence model overlaid (blue curve). Extracting the R&C list, we mark detected CME events at ACE (magenta; ICME at ACE) and during the time span covered by the persistence model ACE+27, i.e. during the subsequent rotation (green; ICME at ACE+27). Triangles denote the detected peaks in each profile, which are labeled as a hit (blue cross), false alarm (red circle), or miss (red cross). Black dots below or above a hit symbol marks that the actually measured speed was under- or overestimated by the forecast.
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