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All issues Volume 8 (2018) J. Space Weather Space Clim., 8 (2018) A18 Full HTML

Table 2

Event based statistics for ACE+27, STEREO and STEREO+CH persistence models covering the time range 2008–2012 and 2017 (January–August). ALL = 2008–2012; YES = CMEs occurrences are included in the statistical analysis; NO = CMEs are excluded from the statistical analysis; Total = number of all predicted peaks; TP = hit; FP = false alarm; FN = miss; FAR = False Alarm Ratio; TS = Threat Score (worst: TS = 0, best: TS = 1); BS = Bias (BS < 1 underestimation; BS > 1 overestimation); POD = Probability of Detection.

Data Total TP FP FN FAR TS BS POD
ACE+27
2008/YES 41 30 11 12 0.29 0.57 0.98 0.73
2008/NO 41 30 11 12 0.29 0.57 0.98 0.73
2012/YES 44 22 22 22 0.50 0.33 1.00 0.50
2012/NO 33 15 18 21 0.58 0.28 0.92 0.45
ALL/YES 215 126 89 90 0.42 0.41 1.00 0.59
ALL/NO 190 111 79 81 0.42 0.41 0.99 0.58
2017/YES 30 18 12 13 0.42 0.42 0.97 0.60
STEREO persistence model
2008/YES 42 34 8 8 0.19 0.68 1.00 0.81
2008/NO 41 33 8 8 0.20 0.67 1.00 0.80
2012/YES 43 25 18 19 0.43 0.40 0.98 0.58
2012/NO 30 18 12 16 0.47 0.39 0.88 0.60
ALL/YES 208 137 71 79 0.37 0.48 0.96 0.66
ALL/NO 180 119 61 67 0.36 0.49 0.97 0.66
2017/YES 33 20 13 11 0.35 0.45 1.06 0.61
STEREO+CH persistence model
2008/YES 41 33 8 9 0.21 0.66 0.98 0.80
2008/NO 40 32 8 9 0.22 0.65 0.98 0.80
2012/YES 47 29 18 15 0.34 0.47 1.07 0.62
2012/NO 36 22 14 12 0.35 0.46 1.06 0.61
ALL/YES 214 143 71 73 0.34 0.50 1.00 0.67
ALL/NO 188 124 64 62 0.33 0.50 1.01 0.66
2017/YES 33 19 14 12 0.39 0.42 1.06 0.58

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