Coronal hole evolution from multi-viewpoint data as input for a STEREO solar wind speed persistence model | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Developing New Space Weather Tools: Transitioning fundamental science to operational prediction systems

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Table 3

Statistics on continuous values for solar wind speed [km/s] covering the time range 2008–2012 and 2017 (January–August). ALL = 2008–2012; YES = CMEs occurrences are included in the statistical analysis; NO = CMEs are excluded from the statistical analysis; ME = mean error; MAE = mean average error; RMSE = root mean square error; meanP = mean speed predicted; stddevP = standard deviation predicted; meanM = mean speed measured; stddevM = standard deviation measured; CC = correlation coefficient; RUS = ratio of underestimated speed (calculated for hits only).

Data	ME	MAE	RMSE	meanP	stddevP	meanM	stddevM	CC	RUS
ACE+27
2008/YES	−6.62	57.96	77.13	458.96	116.48	452.34	114.89	0.67	0.33
2008/NO	−6.95	58.07	77.31	460.10	116.75	453.15	115.44	0.67	0.33
2012/YES	−0.29	73.44	98.92	407.90	81.91	407.61	82.38	0.31	0.45
2012/NO	−0.68	71.13	95.39	408.81	82.78	408.13	81.49	0.49	0.40
ALL/YES	−1.84	67.32	90.23	412.92	94.53	411.08	93.67	0.53	0.45
ALL/NO	−2.36	66.03	88.31	414.33	96.22	411.97	94.83	0.56	0.46
2017/YES	−1.43	81.86	108.41	462.42	113.20	460.99	110.95	0.62	0.61
STEREO persistence model
2008/YES	8.26	46.39	63.79	444.08	116.20	452.34	114.89	0.80	0.59
2008/NO	8.13	46.16	63.73	445.62	117.02	453.75	115.96	0.78	0.58
2012/YES	6.54	69.90	94.44	401.06	93.64	407.61	82.38	0.54	0.44
2012/NO	11.62	66.00	88.27	396.62	91.37	408.24	82.64	0.71	0.44
ALL/YES	8.69	59.46	82.71	402.39	99.02	411.08	93.67	0.61	0.47
ALL/NO	9.79	57.15	79.28	402.15	99.71	411.94	95.08	0.72	0.45
2017/YES	14.22	87.26	116.60	446.77	101.59	460.99	110.95	0.61	0.65
STEREO+CH persistence model
2008/YES	−1.70	46.78	63.16	454.05	121.25	452.34	114.89	0.80	0.39
2008/NO	−1.94	46.53	63.01	455.69	122.08	453.75	115.96	0.77	0.38
2012/YES	−12.17	72.84	96.85	419.77	97.20	407.61	82.38	0.53	0.45
2012/NO	−7.00	68.58	90.24	415.24	95.30	408.24	82.64	0.62	0.45
ALL/YES	−5.12	60.45	83.25	416.20	102.31	411.08	93.67	0.62	0.44
ALL/NO	−3.86	57.99	79.62	415.80	103.05	411.94	95.08	0.71	0.42
2017/YES	−6.60	84.88	113.60	467.59	104.07	460.99	110.95	0.64	0.42

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