Table 3

Statistics on continuous values for solar wind speed [km/s] covering the time range 2008–2012 and 2017 (January–August). ALL = 2008–2012; YES = CMEs occurrences are included in the statistical analysis; NO = CMEs are excluded from the statistical analysis; ME = mean error; MAE = mean average error; RMSE = root mean square error; meanP = mean speed predicted; stddevP = standard deviation predicted; meanM = mean speed measured; stddevM = standard deviation measured; CC = correlation coefficient; RUS = ratio of underestimated speed (calculated for hits only).

Data ME MAE RMSE meanP stddevP meanM stddevM CC RUS
ACE+27
2008/YES −6.62 57.96 77.13 458.96 116.48 452.34 114.89 0.67 0.33
2008/NO −6.95 58.07 77.31 460.10 116.75 453.15 115.44 0.67 0.33
2012/YES −0.29 73.44 98.92 407.90 81.91 407.61 82.38 0.31 0.45
2012/NO −0.68 71.13 95.39 408.81 82.78 408.13 81.49 0.49 0.40
ALL/YES −1.84 67.32 90.23 412.92 94.53 411.08 93.67 0.53 0.45
ALL/NO −2.36 66.03 88.31 414.33 96.22 411.97 94.83 0.56 0.46
2017/YES −1.43 81.86 108.41 462.42 113.20 460.99 110.95 0.62 0.61
STEREO persistence model
2008/YES 8.26 46.39 63.79 444.08 116.20 452.34 114.89 0.80 0.59
2008/NO 8.13 46.16 63.73 445.62 117.02 453.75 115.96 0.78 0.58
2012/YES 6.54 69.90 94.44 401.06 93.64 407.61 82.38 0.54 0.44
2012/NO 11.62 66.00 88.27 396.62 91.37 408.24 82.64 0.71 0.44
ALL/YES 8.69 59.46 82.71 402.39 99.02 411.08 93.67 0.61 0.47
ALL/NO 9.79 57.15 79.28 402.15 99.71 411.94 95.08 0.72 0.45
2017/YES 14.22 87.26 116.60 446.77 101.59 460.99 110.95 0.61 0.65
STEREO+CH persistence model
2008/YES −1.70 46.78 63.16 454.05 121.25 452.34 114.89 0.80 0.39
2008/NO −1.94 46.53 63.01 455.69 122.08 453.75 115.96 0.77 0.38
2012/YES −12.17 72.84 96.85 419.77 97.20 407.61 82.38 0.53 0.45
2012/NO −7.00 68.58 90.24 415.24 95.30 408.24 82.64 0.62 0.45
ALL/YES −5.12 60.45 83.25 416.20 102.31 411.08 93.67 0.62 0.44
ALL/NO −3.86 57.99 79.62 415.80 103.05 411.94 95.08 0.71 0.42
2017/YES −6.60 84.88 113.60 467.59 104.07 460.99 110.95 0.64 0.42

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