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Fig. 3

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This figure presents the predictions of (a) the WCP-euv304 and (b) the WCP-sxr (v1.3) models for the event that took place at 5:05 UT on September 30, 2013. Note that both models correctly detected a magnetic connection. Unlike the WCP-euv304 model, WCP-sxr missed the event because the condition regarding the threshold f (i.e., the minimum EM flux necessary to trigger a prediction) was not met. The SXR peak flux of the associated flare was 1 × 10−6 W m−2, which was not higher than the f threshold of the WCP-sxr model, which is 4 × 10−6 W m−2.

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