Open Access
Research Article

Table 5

Forecasting results of the PCP model, compared with those of the WCP-94, for predicting all >10 MeV SEP events that occurred from May 2010 to December 2017. The last column emphasizes which SEP events are predicted by both WCP-euv94 and PCP models and which by none.

SEP event start date and time Event WCP-euv94 PCP model Remarks
Type Forecast Result Forecast result
14/08/2010 – 12:30 Prompt Hit Miss
08/03/2011 – 01:05 Prompt Hit Miss
21/03/2011 – 19:50 Prompt Miss Hit Prompt event not predicted by WCP, but by PCP
07/06/2011 – 08:20 Prompt Hit Miss
04/08/2011 – 06:35 Prompt Hit Miss
09/08/2011 – 08:45 Prompt Hit Miss
23/09/2011 – 22:55 Non-prompt Miss Hit
26/11/2011 – 11:25 Prompt Hit Miss
23/01/2012 – 05:30 Prompt Hit Miss
27/01/2012 – 19:05 Prompt Hit Miss
07/03/2012 – 05:10 Prompt Hit Miss
13/03/2012 – 18:10 Prompt Hit Miss
17/05/2012 – 02:10 Prompt Miss Miss Prompt event not predicted by WCP nor by PCP
27/05/2012 – 05:35 Prompt Miss Miss Prompt event not predicted by WCP nor by PCP
16/06/2012 – 19:55 Non-prompt Miss Hit
07/07/2012 – 04:00 Prompt Hit Hit
12/07/2012 – 18:35 Prompt Hit Miss
17/07/2012 – 17:15 Prompt Hit Miss
23/07/2012 – 15:45 Prompt Miss Hit Prompt event not predicted by WCP, but by PCP
01/09/2012 – 13:35 Non-prompt Miss Hit
28/09/2012 – 03:00 Prompt Hit Miss
16/03/2013 – 19:40 Non-prompt Miss Hit
11/04/2013 – 10:55 Prompt Hit Miss
15/05/2013 – 13:25 Non-prompt Miss Hit
22/05/2013 – 14:20 Prompt Hit Miss
23/06/2013 – 20:14 Non-prompt Miss Hit
30/09/2013 – 05:05 Prompt Hit Hit Prompt event predicted by both models
28/12/2013 – 21:50 Prompt Hit Miss
06/01/2014 – 09:15 Prompt Hit Miss
07/01/2014 – 19:30 Prompt Miss Miss Prompt event not predicted by WCP nor by PCP
20/02/2014 – 08:50 Prompt Hit Miss
25/02/2014 – 13:55 Non-prompt Miss Hit
18/04/2014 – 15:25 Prompt Hit Miss
11/09/2014 – 02:40 Non-prompt Miss Hit
18/06/2015 – 11:35 Prompt Hit Hit Prompt event predicted by both models
21/06/2015 – 21:35 Non-prompt Miss Hit
26/06/2015 – 03:50 Non-prompt Miss Hit
29/10/2015 – 05:50 Prompt Hit Miss
02/01/2016 – 04:30 Prompt Hit Miss
14/07/2017 – 09:00 Prompt Hit Miss
05/09/2017 – 00:40 Prompt Hit Miss
10/09/2017 – 16:45 Prompt Hit Miss

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