Open Access
Table 5
Forecasting results of the PCP model, compared with those of the WCP-94, for predicting all >10 MeV SEP events that occurred from May 2010 to December 2017. The last column emphasizes which SEP events are predicted by both WCP-euv94 and PCP models and which by none.
| SEP event start date and time | Event | WCP-euv94 | PCP model | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type | Forecast Result | Forecast result | ||
| 14/08/2010 – 12:30 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 08/03/2011 – 01:05 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 21/03/2011 – 19:50 | Prompt | Miss | Hit | Prompt event not predicted by WCP, but by PCP |
| 07/06/2011 – 08:20 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 04/08/2011 – 06:35 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 09/08/2011 – 08:45 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 23/09/2011 – 22:55 | Non-prompt | Miss | Hit | |
| 26/11/2011 – 11:25 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 23/01/2012 – 05:30 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 27/01/2012 – 19:05 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 07/03/2012 – 05:10 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 13/03/2012 – 18:10 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 17/05/2012 – 02:10 | Prompt | Miss | Miss | Prompt event not predicted by WCP nor by PCP |
| 27/05/2012 – 05:35 | Prompt | Miss | Miss | Prompt event not predicted by WCP nor by PCP |
| 16/06/2012 – 19:55 | Non-prompt | Miss | Hit | |
| 07/07/2012 – 04:00 | Prompt | Hit | Hit | |
| 12/07/2012 – 18:35 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 17/07/2012 – 17:15 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 23/07/2012 – 15:45 | Prompt | Miss | Hit | Prompt event not predicted by WCP, but by PCP |
| 01/09/2012 – 13:35 | Non-prompt | Miss | Hit | |
| 28/09/2012 – 03:00 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 16/03/2013 – 19:40 | Non-prompt | Miss | Hit | |
| 11/04/2013 – 10:55 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 15/05/2013 – 13:25 | Non-prompt | Miss | Hit | |
| 22/05/2013 – 14:20 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 23/06/2013 – 20:14 | Non-prompt | Miss | Hit | |
| 30/09/2013 – 05:05 | Prompt | Hit | Hit | Prompt event predicted by both models |
| 28/12/2013 – 21:50 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 06/01/2014 – 09:15 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 07/01/2014 – 19:30 | Prompt | Miss | Miss | Prompt event not predicted by WCP nor by PCP |
| 20/02/2014 – 08:50 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 25/02/2014 – 13:55 | Non-prompt | Miss | Hit | |
| 18/04/2014 – 15:25 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 11/09/2014 – 02:40 | Non-prompt | Miss | Hit | |
| 18/06/2015 – 11:35 | Prompt | Hit | Hit | Prompt event predicted by both models |
| 21/06/2015 – 21:35 | Non-prompt | Miss | Hit | |
| 26/06/2015 – 03:50 | Non-prompt | Miss | Hit | |
| 29/10/2015 – 05:50 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 02/01/2016 – 04:30 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 14/07/2017 – 09:00 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 05/09/2017 – 00:40 | Prompt | Hit | Miss | |
| 10/09/2017 – 16:45 | Prompt | Hit | Miss |
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