Figure 7


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Root mean square (RMS) error for K-fold validation (cross-validation errors) for all models described above for different horizon times of predictions. The solar wind-based model has a lower RMS error than Kp-based models, while the recurrence model outperforms the solar-wind based model for longer horizon times. The full model provides a smooth transition between the Kp-based and solar-wind based models (adapted from Shprits et al., 2019).

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