Open Access
Table 1
Flare Forecasting methods included in the ensemble forecast (members). Name, developer/issuer/responsible institution, details on predictive model, archive or place used to retrieve forecasts, and references for each method are presented.
| Method | Issuer/Responsible | Predicting method | Source | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAG4 | U. of Alabama, MSFC | Forecasting curve + free energy proxy; fully automated | iSWAa | Falconer et al. (2011, 2014) |
| ASSA | Korean Space Weather Center | McIntosh class + Poisson statistics; fully automated | iSWA | ASSA Manualb |
| ASAP | U. of Bradford, UK | McIntosh class; sunspot-group area; neural network | iSWA | Colak & Qahwaji (2008, 2009) |
| NOAA | NOAA SWPC | Table look-up + persistence + climatology; human corrected | https://swpc.noaa.gov | Crown (2012) |
| MOSWOC | UK Met Office | McIntosh class + Poisson statistics; human corrected | https://metoffice.gov.uk/space-weather | Murray et al. (2017) |
| MCSTAT | Trinity College Dublin | McIntosh class + Poisson statistics; fully automated | https://solarmonitor.org | Gallagher et al. (2002), Bloomfield et al. (2012) |
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