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Table 1

Flare Forecasting methods included in the ensemble forecast (members). Name, developer/issuer/responsible institution, details on predictive model, archive or place used to retrieve forecasts, and references for each method are presented.

Method Issuer/Responsible Predicting method Source Reference
MAG4 U. of Alabama, MSFC Forecasting curve + free energy proxy; fully automated iSWAa Falconer et al. (2011, 2014)
ASSA Korean Space Weather Center McIntosh class + Poisson statistics; fully automated iSWA ASSA Manualb
ASAP U. of Bradford, UK McIntosh class; sunspot-group area; neural network iSWA Colak & Qahwaji (2008, 2009)
NOAA NOAA SWPC Table look-up + persistence + climatology; human corrected https://swpc.noaa.gov Crown (2012)
MOSWOC UK Met Office McIntosh class + Poisson statistics; human corrected https://metoffice.gov.uk/space-weather Murray et al. (2017)
MCSTAT Trinity College Dublin McIntosh class + Poisson statistics; fully automated https://solarmonitor.org Gallagher et al. (2002), Bloomfield et al. (2012)

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