Performance metrics tested in the optimization process. Each metric produces a different set of combination weights (i.e., a different ensemble). In each case a label is shown in parentheses that is used throughout the rest of the manuscript. Categorical metrics are calculated using 2 × 2 contingency table after probabilistic forecasts are turned into deterministic forecasts by choosing a threshold value, P th. See Appendix A for their definitions.
|Brier score (BRIER)||Brier score (BRIER_C)|
|Mean absolute error (MAE)||True skill statistic (TSS)|
|Linear correlation coefficient (LCC)a||Heidke skill score (HSS)|
|Rank (nonlinear) correlation coefficient||Accuracy (ACC)|
|(NLCC_ρ, NLCC_τ)||Critical success index (CSI)|
|Reliability (REL)||Gilbert skill score (GSS)|
|Relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve area|
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