Fig. 10


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Example of the development and tests of new morphological flare predictors (adapted from Kontogiannis et al., 2018). (a) Input LOS magnetogram of NOAA 11611. (b) The magnetogram is partitioned into positive- (red contours) and negative- (blue contours) polarity flux patches that are used to derive the Ising energy EIsing,part of the AR. These partitions, along with the vector magnetogram of the AR, are further used to calculate the total unsigned non-neutralized currents INN,tot. (c) Positive- (red) and negative- (blue) polarity umbrae identified in maps of continuum intensity are used to calculate the Ising energy of the umbrae EIsing,spot and the sum of the horizontal magnetic gradient Gs. (d–e) Conditional probabilities for GOES ≥C1.0 and ≥M1.0, respectively, calculated for a set of successive thresholds in EIsing, EIsing,part, EIsing,spot, Gs and INN,tot. The respective probabilities inferred for the total unsigned magnetic flux Φ are also shown for reference.

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