Modeled and observed CME geoeffectiveness as a function of time. (a) Magnetopause stand-off distance calculated from EUHFORIA and Wind time series using the model by Shue et al. (1997). The black horizontal line marks the geosynchronous orbits at 6.6 R_e. Cone and spheroidal model results are shown in teal and violet, respectively. As a reference, ambient solar wind model results are plotted in gray. Estimates from Wind measurements are shown in black. (b) Kp index calculated from EUHFORIA and Wind time series using the relation by Newell et al. (2008). Three-hour Kp measurements are shown in red.