| Issue |
J. Space Weather Space Clim.
Volume 8, 2018
Developing New Space Weather Tools: Transitioning fundamental science to operational prediction systems
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | A22 | |
| Number of page(s) | 14 | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2018017 | |
| Published online | 17 April 2018 | |
Research Article
Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online
1
Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology,
Moscow, Russia
2
Space Research Institute,
Moscow, Russia
* Corresponding author: t.podladchikova@skoltech.ru
Received:
24
May
2017
Accepted:
18
February
2018
Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011–2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.
Key words: Solar wind / magnetic field / storm / forecasting / validation
© T. Podladchikova et al., Published by EDP Sciences 2018
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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