Research Article

Neural network based model for global Total Electron Content forecasting

¹ Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
² SpacEarth Technology, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
³ European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
⁴ Independent Researcher, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
⁵ National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, Jl. Pemuda Persil 1, 13320 Jakarta Timur, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: claudio.cesaroni@ingv.it

Received: 30 September 2019
Accepted: 6 March 2020

Abstract

We introduce a novel empirical model to forecast, 24 h in advance, the Total Electron Content (TEC) at global scale. The technique leverages on the Global Ionospheric Map (GIM), provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS), and applies a nonlinear autoregressive neural network with external input (NARX) to selected GIM grid points for the 24 h single-point TEC forecasting, taking into account the actual and forecasted geomagnetic conditions. To extend the forecasting at a global scale, the technique makes use of the NeQuick2 Model fed by an effective sunspot number R12 (R12eff), estimated by minimizing the root mean square error (RMSE) between NARX output and NeQuick2 applied at the same GIM grid points. The novel approach is able to reproduce the features of the ionosphere especially during disturbed periods. The performance of the forecasting approach is extensively tested under different geospatial conditions, against both TEC maps products by UPC (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya) and independent TEC data from Jason-3 spacecraft. The testing results are very satisfactory in terms of RMSE, as it has been found to range between 3 and 5 TECu. RMSE depend on the latitude sectors, time of the day, geomagnetic conditions, and provide a statistical estimation of the accuracy of the 24-h forecasting technique even over the oceans. The validation of the forecasting during five geomagnetic storms reveals that the model performance is not deteriorated during disturbed periods. This 24-h empirical approach is currently implemented on the Ionosphere Prediction Service (IPS), a prototype platform to support different classes of GNSS users.